The latest CPI publication indicates a drop in home food prices.
Figure 1: CPI (bold black), food at home component (light blue) and January ERS forecast (blue square), all in logs, 2021M01=0. Source: BLS, ERSand the author’s calculations.
At the national level, the home food component has been declining for three months now. The USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecast for year-end CPI has therefore declined slightly.
A similar pattern of food price deceleration occurred in the Northeast Central region (which includes Wisconsin).
Figure 2: East-North Central CPI (bold black) and East-North Central food at home component (light blue), all in newspapers, 2021M01=0. Series seasonally adjusted by the author using X-13 (logarithmic transformation at the level). Source: BLS and author’s calculations.
However, as the subregion’s overall CPI has not increased as much as its national counterpart, the gap between home food and overall food remains wider here.
