Billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes the chances of a second American civil war are greater than one in three and is urging investors to move some of their assets out of the country.
Dalio, who founded the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, before give up control in September 2022, believes this year’s presidential election between incumbent President Joe Biden and challenger Donald Trump is the most important of his lifetime and will serve as a litmus test of whether risks spiral out of control.
“We are now on the brink of the abyss,” he told Financial Times in a interview published Thursday, estimating the probability of a conflict breaking out between 35 and 40%.
Only a few years ago, civil war seemed inconceivable. But the January 6 scenes of angry mobs ransacking the Capitol – broadcast into living rooms and told by a Briton ITV news team in real time – are all too evocative of political revolts in third world countries.
The idea of anational divorce“, proposed last year by Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, has since been brought to the big screen by director Alex Garland in the simple name Civil war released in April. A Rasmussen survey conducted shortly afterward, suggested that 41% of likely American voters thought they would experience civil war in the next five years.
The November election and the resulting reactions will play a crucial role in determining whether the system can still heal itself – or whether the United States is pessimistic: the voters are right.
“Will there be an acceptance of the rules and an ability to work well within those rules? » asked the founder of Bridgewater.
“Best US regions” remain attractive for investment
Political scientist Barbara F. Walter, author of How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Themargues that people like Dalio can defend democracy through a more holistic approach to capitalism that pumps money into communities left behind by globalization.
“Businesses can invest in better health care, better education and a higher minimum wage to create a group of people who are optimistic about the future and less vulnerable to calls from extremists to burn down the system,” he said. -she argued during a TED conference. last April.
Dalio, however, has a different idea: Stay invested only in what the hedge fund called “the best parts of the United States,” where innovation and capitalism still thrive, and move the rest of your money out of the country to more stable jurisdictions. and attractive.
“Countries that earn more than they spend and have good balance sheets, have internal order and are neutral in geopolitical conflicts… look attractive,” Dalio said, suggesting India, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and some Gulf States as possible destinations.
One of those who responded to a similar call is Warren Buffett, who has just revealed that he has made a decision. A bet of 7 billion dollars In Chuban American insurance company that relocated its operations from the United States to Switzerland in 2008.
