Extract from the EIA (May 7, 2024):
Source: EIA, STEO (May 2024).
Note that the forecast is slightly higher than the futures. See Chinn and Coibion (2014) on forecast performance of oil futures.
Here are the fuel forecasts:
Source: EIA, STEO (May 2024).
For context, here are regular gasoline prices (nominal, actual) in the United States:
Figure 1: Regular gasoline prices in $/gallon (blue) and 2017$/gallon (tan). Relative price calculated by dividing the price of gasoline by the base CPI; April core CPI based on Cleveland Fed nowcast 5/8/2024. The NBER has defined the peak to trough dates of the recession in gray. Source: EIA, BLS, via FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.
