By Eeckhout (2023)actual data for CPI and PPI, and nowcasts for PCE, titer and core.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T = 12, a = 4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator (bronze), and PPI (green). The PCE observation for March is a nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations by Eeckhout (2023). Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 04/11/2024) and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for baseline CPI (bold blue), baseline PCE deflator (bronze), and baseline PPI (green). The PCE observation for March is a nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations by Eeckhout (2023). Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 04/11/2024) and author’s calculations.
Note that the snapshot core CPI has stabilized, while the core PCE deflator and core PPI have declined. However, the snapshot core PCE forecast at 2.9% in March remains above the 2% target.
