The British Conservative Party suffered resounding setbacks on Friday in the ongoing local elections. considered a barometer on how the party will fare in the next general election and a key test for embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Only a minority of the results had been announced by Friday morning, but the signs were already worrying, if not unexpected, for Mr Sunak’s Conservatives, who have trailed the opposition Labor Party by double digits in national polls for 18 months.
The Conservatives have lost more than 120 seats so far, including six in Hartlepool, northeast England, where they made a post-Brexit breakthrough but have recently lost ground to the resurgent Labor Party.
Labor also won a special election for a parliamentary seat in Blackpool South, a seaside district, by a huge margin of votes to the Conservatives, who held the seat but narrowly missed out on third place, behind Reform UK, a small margin. right-wing party. . Former Conservative MP Scott Benton resigned in March after becoming embroiled in a lobbying scandal.
Labor leader Keir Starmer described it as a “seismic victory” and the most important result of the day, although many more elections were still to be declared, some of which could ease the pain for the Tories if they finish to get out of it. victories.
“This is the only contest where voters have had the chance to send a message directly to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives,” Mr Starmer said, “and that message is an overwhelming vote for change.”
The Conservatives said in a statement that the vote in Blackpool South “would still be a difficult election given the specific circumstances relating to the previous incumbent”.
Voters I went to the polls Thursday in 107 towns in England to elect members of local councils as well as 11 mayors, notably in London, the West Midlands and Tees Valley, in the north-east of England. Further results will be announced throughout Friday and the weekend.
With Mr Sunak’s party sharply divided and time running out before he must call a general election by next January, the results were closely watched. While analysts expected the Conservatives to lose a significant number of seats, a worse-than-expected result could galvanize Mr Sunak’s critics within the party to try to unseat him and install another leader.
The prime minister’s allies hope that some resounding victories – particularly in two regional mayoral elections – would reassure conservative lawmakers, stabilize his fragile leadership and end speculation about his ability to lead the party in the general election, expected in autumn.
The result of one of these races, in the Tees Valley, is expected to be released around midday on Friday, while another, in the West Midlands, is not expected until Saturday. In both elections, Conservative candidates campaigned more on their personal popularity than on their party affiliation.
Even if the Conservatives win these two mayoral elections, they still stand to lose at least 400 council seats out of the 985 they are defending. Many of these elections are taking place in towns traditionally dominated by the Labor Party, but which shifted to Conservative hands in the years following the 2016 Brexit referendum.
To make matters more difficult, the last time many of these races took place, in 2021, Mr Sunak’s Conservatives were enjoying a period of popularity due to the mass rollout of a coronavirus vaccine by one of his predecessors, Boris Johnson. That means conservatives may have a long way to go.
As well as Hartlepool, Labor gained control of Redditch, Thurrock and Rushmoor councils in Hampshire, although it suffered a setback in Oldham, where it remains the largest party, but lost overall control of the council after that some seats fell into the hands of independents. .
For Mr Starmer, the election is an opportunity to show he has a credible chance of becoming Britain’s next prime minister, as current polls suggest. Despite his party’s good numbers, few voters seem enthusiastic about Mr Starmer, seen as a competent but not particularly charismatic politician.
London voters will have to wait until Saturday to find out whether their mayor, Sadiq Khan, has won a third term, the first for a London mayor since the post was created in 2000. A defeat for Mr Khan against his Conservative opponent, Susan . Hall, would be a big surprise, as the British capital leans left politically, but assuming he wins, the margin of victory will be monitored for signs of declining popularity.
The major challenge, however, falls to the conservatives. A heavy loss of seats could demoralize the party faithful and panic conservative lawmakers, who fear being kicked out of Parliament in the general election.
Since their last landslide election in 2019, the Conservatives have already ousted two leaders, Mr Johnson and Liz Truss. Unseating a third would be risky, as there is no obvious replacement who is safer than Mr Sunak, who was Chancellor of the Exchequer under Mr Johnson.
Mr Johnson recalled his disorganized leadership style on Thursday when he showed up at a polling station without the necessary photo ID – a requirement that had been introduced by his own government in 2022 – and was turned away (he later returned with the correct identification).
For Mr Sunak, the polls are now so dire that some see a new leader as the only possible way to avoid a ruinous general election defeat. In January, a former minister, Simon Clarke, called on the Prime Minister to resign, but this failed to foment a bigger rebellion.
For those who think such a gamble is worth taking, the aftermath of the local elections could be the last chance to take action against Mr Sunak before he puts his party on alert for the general election.
The Conservatives’ dismal showing in the 2022 local elections was a prelude to Mr Johnson’s ouster, but not the trigger: he was ultimately purged two months later after mishandling an unrelated scandal.
Mr Sunak’s supporters say he can benefit from falling inflation, prospects for an economic recovery and that by taking action its plan to place asylum seekers on one-way flights to Rwandaa popular policy among Conservatives and many are helping to fend off the threat from Britain’s anti-immigration Reform Party.
Earlier this week, the government released video footage of asylum seekers being detained for deportation to Rwanda.
