THE UNITED STATES faces an “increasingly fragile world order” strained by competition from adversarial global powers and foreign humanitarian disasters that are fueling migration, according to a U.S. spy report.
The intelligence community released its annual threat assessment report that “focuses on the most direct and serious threats” facing the country over the next year.
Not surprisingly, an “ambitious but anxious” China and a “confrontational” Russia pose the biggest threats.
And conflicts abroad orchestrated by terrorist groups have far-reaching consequences. The report mentions the invasion of Israel on October 7, which sparked months of protests and hostilities across the United States
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The 41-page report, released in February, discusses several threats, as well as regional instability, that will demand U.S. attention “as states and non-state actors struggle in this evolving global order.”
Civil unrest in Haiti, which has escalated into civil war, and instability in Venezuela, exacerbated by corrupt regimes backed by China, Iran and Russia, are forcing citizens to flee, fueling U.S. policy. immigration peak.
These are three threats highlighted by the intelligence community.
1. China
The report specifically mentions four countries – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – but none of them pose a greater threat. that Chinaaccording to the report.
“China has the ability to compete directly with the United States and its allies and change the rules-based global order in ways that support Beijing’s power and form of governance over that of the United States” , the report says.
There are concerns that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) may attempt to influence the 2024 US elections “on some level…to set aside criticism of China and amplify divisions in American society.”
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“PRC actors have increased their capabilities to conduct covert influence operations and disseminate disinformation,” the spy report said. “Even if Beijing sets limits on these activities, individuals not under its direct supervision may attempt electoral influence activities that they view as consistent with Beijing’s objectives.”
President Xi Jinping still sees Taiwan as a legitimate part of the People’s Republic of China. A still-looming potential invasion, similar to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, poses a “flashpoint” for confrontation between China and the United States, the report said.
China is America’s biggest competitor in a technological arms race as advances in artificial intelligence explode, and Beijing is “trying to accelerate” its progress.
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2. Russia
Like China, it’s no surprise Russia is at the top of a 41-page report on threats against America and its allies.
“Russia will remain a serious threat of foreign influence due to its far-reaching efforts to divide Western alliances, undermine the United States’ global standing, and sow discord domestically, including among American voters and their partners around the world,” the intelligence community said. the report said.
Vladimir Putin and the country suffered “huge damage” after invade Ukrainewho mounted an unexpected defense.
Russia is like a lame wild animal that “almost certainly” does not want direct military conflict with US and NATO forces, but the threat of nuclear weapons and chemical warfare still exists.
Russia “possesses the largest and most diverse stockpile of nuclear weapons,” including long-range capabilities and underwater delivery systems designed to penetrate or circumvent U.S. missile defenses.
There have been at least two recent uses of chemical weapons in assassination attempts, in 2020 and 2018.
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3. Immigration
The report details several countries riven by domestic unrest, government corruption and economic discontent, which are fueling cycles of insurgencies and violence.
The current situation of six countries is outlined in the report, including Haiti, which has descended into civil war led by warlord Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier, and Corruption of the Venezuelan government.
The Haitian government has lost its grip on warring gangs, and the Haitian National Police is severely understaffed and overwhelmed by gangs.
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The report was published before gangs freed 4,000 inmates after a multi-day shootout with police in early March.
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In Venezuela, contested President Nicolas Maduro is more like a dictator and will likely retain power. Maduro’s regime is supported by China, Russia and Iran, allowing the country to escape sanctions.
Maduro banned opposition candidates from holding public office, restricted media coverage and placed close allies on the National Electoral Council to ensure his victory despite evidence of “egregious” electoral fraud, the report said.
More than 80% of the country lives below the poverty line and nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2017.
The situations of the two countries have fueled the immigration crisis in the United States
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“Conflict, violence, political instability, poor economic conditions and natural disasters will continue to displace increasing numbers of people within their own national borders and internationally, straining capacity countries to absorb new arrivals and governments to provide services and manage domestic public discontent. “, the report said.
The United States and the Western Hemisphere in general will “likely” continue to experience high levels of migration flows, the report said.
The number of people displaced from their homes in 2022 was three times the average of the previous 10 years, the intelligence community noted.
“Political repression and lack of economic opportunities will continue to spur Cuban, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan emigration; however, these regimes will continue to blame U.S. sanctions and policies for irregular emigration from their countries,” the report said.
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