This is a new problem for the auto industry. “One of the advantages of automotive is that it tends to evolve much more slowly than consumer electronics,” says Phil Amsrud, associate director of automotive at market research firm S&P Global Mobility. That gives automakers and suppliers plenty of time to figure out how to maintain their products and ensure that software remains current and functional for at least 15 years. But “now that we’re trying to shrink the automotive timeframe to be more consumer-like, is that 15 years going to be reduced to 10 years or even five years?” Amsrud asks.
Automakers love the idea of a “software-defined vehicle” because it could be a low-margin, high-profit entry point into the software business. A customer whose car can be updated anytime, anywhere might also be a customer willing to do so. pay to update their car whenever and wherever they want.
As a result, car manufacturers can continue to sell new services and subscriptions— hands-free driving systems, perks like remote start and enhanced maps — to people who already own their cars, as long as they’re on the road. Today, some car customers pay extra monthly fees for these bundled services, including General Motors’ OnStar roadside assistance, Tesla’s fully autonomous (supervised) driving and Mercedes’ Me Connect package. But the public has been resistant to the idea of other subscriptions, including a BMW 2022 Offer that allegedly charged South Korean drivers a monthly fee to turn on their heated seats. (The automaker eventually abandoned the diagram.)
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The concept of “software-defined vehicles” requires automakers to build in headroom—that is, to ensure that today’s automotive hardware can handle tomorrow’s new capabilities. The disappearance of connectivity standards—which ultimately are the choice of telecom companies, not automakers—shows that this is a difficult challenge.
In a written statement, Volkswagen spokesman Mark Gillies said that “despite our best efforts, we have not yet identified a solution that meets our reliability and security standards for 3G vehicles.” He declined to comment further on the solutions, citing ongoing legal proceedings, but said the company estimates that the end of 4G will not occur until 2035, “which means that the majority of our 4G vehicles will have the ability to connect for at least 10 years.”
Auto experts say the auto industry has made no meaningful commitments about how long it plans to continue updating its new software-equipped vehicles. And if vehicles lose the ability to update well before they reach the junkyard, “whoever is holding the bag is going to take a big hit in terms of resale value,” says Philip Koopman, who studies transportation software and safety as an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University.
Ray Cornyn is senior vice president and general manager of automotive processors at NXP, a Dutch company that is among the auto industry’s most popular suppliers. He predicts that the future of automotive software will look a bit like the present. “Vehicles will be defined and designed for a 10- to 15-year lifespan,” he says, with vendors like NXP supporting them beyond that. But the bulk of updates will happen in years 5 to 10.
Electric vehicle company Rivian Rivian bills itself as a software company. Wassym Bensaid, head of software, says its solution to obsolescence is, in theory, pretty simple: The automaker talks to its suppliers about when its hardware will no longer be updatable. “Right now, the amount of leeway that we’ve built into our hardware with what we think are best practices in the software world, we’re looking at seven years,” Bensaid says. So while that’s about the longevity of smartphones, in practice it could mean that Rivian trucks and SUVs sold today will only get software updates until 2031.
Still, while this might be the strongest commitment from an automaker to updates, experts remain skeptical and wish automakers were clearer about when and how they plan to update their vehicles.
“Whatever is said today will really have to be proven over time,” says Stacey Higginbotham, a policy researcher at Consumer Reports.
