Four out of five measures down:
Figure 1: Instant inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (beige), supercore CPI (pink), core PPI (red) and core CPI (green), by Eeckhout (2023)T=12, a=4. The June PCE core is expected on 07/23. Source: BLS, BEA, The Cleveland Fedand the author’s calculations.
Although the instantaneous core PPI increased in June, a regression of the core CPI on the lagged core PPI and the lagged core CPI (all instantaneous) on the data presented above yields a statistically insignificant coefficient on the lagged PPI. This is also true using m/m inflation.
