Polymarket bookmakers report that the chances of former President Donald Trump declaring a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the United States have falled.
Initially, speculation abounded that Trump would reveal a bold strategy to include Bitcoin in the US strategic reserves at the Bitcoin 2024 conference this week.
Current betting odds, however, point only to a probability of 26% of such a statement by July 28. Reflecting a major shift in market sentiment, this contrasts sharply with the 76% probability initially assigned to the concept.
There are other reasons for this sudden loss of confidence, including current political events. The latest news on President Joe Biden Biden’s withdrawal The outcome of the presidential campaign could have distracted from speculation about Bitcoin reserves. The cryptocurrency community and financial experts are adjusting their expectations as the excitement fades.
Source: Polymarket
Has the thrill worn off?
From a tweet by Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Act, the hype around Trump’s possible victory Bitcoin Reserve The announcement had realistic intentions of designating Bitcoin as a strategic national monetary reserve, which fueled hope among Bitcoin investors and aficionados.
Although initially intense, speculation has faded. Including bitcoin in national reserves presents several challenges, including administrative complexity and legal hurdles.
If such a plan were to be implemented, the U.S. Justice Department’s current bitcoin holdings – about 200,000 units – would have to be transferred to the Treasury Department. This approach presents major political and administrative challenges in itself.
Trump: The Strategic Reserve Dilemma
The inclusion of Bitcoin in the US strategic reserves could allow for a particular diversification of the country’s asset portfolio. According to analysts such as Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, such a move could reduce dependence on conventional assets, including gold and foreign currencies.
The possible benefits are obvious since the United States owns about $15 billion in Bitcoin versus $600 billion in gold.
Image: Chainalysis
However, there are still significant practical challenges. Brian Korshain, CEO and founder of DAIM, notes that while the idea of a Bitcoin strategic reserve is “feasible,” its implementation is fraught with challenges.
Moving Bitcoin from the Justice Department to the Treasury would require overcoming major procedural and regulatory hurdles. Including Bitcoin in the reserve system would also require a fundamental shift in how the United States manages and views its national resources.
All eyes will be on Trump and his potential remarks on Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin 2024 unfolds. The sharp decline in betting odds so far indicates a possible fantasy rather than reality around a U.S. digital asset reserve. Aficionados and investors will need to be on the lookout for further changes in the cryptocurrency space.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
