The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday has boosted his chances of winning the election. presidential electionaccording to the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket.
A recent report According to Fortune, while traditional polls may paint a different picture, Polymarket and PredictIt see a noticeable shift in odds following the incident.
Cryptocurrency industry rebounds as Trump’s chances rise
Prediction or betting markets provide a platform on which traders trade contracts based on uncertain future events. The prices of these contracts reflect the collective prediction of market participants, thus acting as odds.
In this sense, Polymarket prediction market The data shows a significant increase in Trump’s chances after the assassination attempt, from 60% to 72%. Conversely, Biden’s chances increased slightly to 18%, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances dropped from 13% to 5%.
PredictIt, another prediction market, also reflects this shift, with Trump’s chances rising to 67% and Biden’s falling to 26%.
The cryptocurrency market’s reaction to the incident has been notable, with prices of the largest tokens rebounding recently. Fortune suggests that Trump’s reaffirmation that he would be the “president of cryptocurrencies” if re-elected led to the recent rally in the cryptocurrency market.
Signs of recovery
Bitcoin, for example, jumped 6%, surging above $63,000 for the first time in three weeks, after hitting a low of $53,500 on July 5 for the first time since February. Currently, the largest cryptocurrency In the market, the gains are 6% and more than 13% over the 24 and 7 hour periods.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks, such as Coinbase Global and crypto mining companies Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms, also saw upward momentum with gains of 10%, 7% and 6%, respectively.
Meme parts created in a parody of the former president has also seen a notable surge with MAGA’s lead, rising more than 45% over a seven-day period and 7% in the past 24 hours, leading to a current trading price of $8.43, not seen since late June.
However, the token is seeing a 66% drop in trading volume and a 53% decline from its all-time high of $17.5 recorded in June 2024, according to CoinGecko. data.
Fortune also reported that Saturday’s shooting had an indirect impact on Trump’s business activities. Shares of Trump Media and Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, jumped 47% after the incident, potentially adding $1.8 billion to Trump’s total wealth, suggesting growing investor interest in Trump-owned companies following the assassination attempt.
Featured image by Toledo Blade, chart by TradingView.com
