The Georgian Dream party came to power following the 2012 parliamentary elections, which marked the first transfer of power in Georgian history. As a coalition party, it concluded EU-Georgia Association Agreement (2014–2016) and visa liberalization (2017). Initially, he appeared to be a willing democratizer. However, his recent authoritarian transgressions have manifested themselves in the adoption of a controversial law on “Transparency of foreign influence” (May 28, 2024). This law aims to weaken local pro-democracy forces and isolate Georgia from international democratic pressures.
Georgia has always strived to join the European Union (EU) And North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Since its independence, the rationale for this Euro-Atlantic integration has been simple and straightforward: to contain Russian political and military aggression and to achieve economic growth and political stability through Western integration. The issue of territorial integrity was one of the main factors that pushed Georgia to align with NATO, while integration with the EU was seen as a promoter of democratic consolidation. The United States and the European Union have collectively supported the Georgian state. Conversely, Russia has tried to undermine Georgia’s independence. Georgia has been a state several times with its support for separatist forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the early days of Georgia’s independence. These separatist conflicts resulted in Ethnic Cleansing of Georgians and their internal displacement. In addition, Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008Georgia’s foreign policy has remained pro-Western since the country’s independence and this has been preserved Article 78 The Georgian Constitution has been amended. No government had previously attempted to change its Western orientation, as such a move would have entailed high electoral costs. However, the Georgian government, driven by the Georgian Dream, has taken a risky decision by aligning itself with Russia.
The United States, the EU, and NATO have been important promoters of Georgian democracy. Since its independence, Western democrats have collectively supported its state-building and democracy-building projects, investing in billions of US dollarsand the transfer of knowledge on good governance. The Georgian government was willing to receive such democratic assistance. opening is considered an important factor in achieving the desired democratic outcomes. Reliable local partners represent internal pillars to avoid unintended consequences of international democracy assistance. Democracy promoters succeed in Georgia and elsewhere when they strengthen democratic institutions. holders of veto rights Political elites, civil society and the media, three areas that are essential for the consolidation of democracy and the establishment of the rule of law, are expanding. However, the adoption of the law on transparency of foreign influences has shown that the Georgian government prefers to cut ties with the West by excluding these important actors from power.
The Georgian government has been ambiguous and has stumbled on its European path. The parliamentary elections in October 2024 will likely show what electoral cost this change in foreign policy could entail for the ruling party. So far, the Georgian Dream has successfully used rhetoric to stir up fears by claiming that the war between Russia and Ukraine could lead to the spread of a regional war and destabilize Georgia. At this politically decisive moment, the Georgian government refrains from explicitly stating its position, stating instead: “those who are not against us are for us” which may translate into a tacit susceptibility to Russian authoritarian pressures.
Although Russia is engaged in a self-destructive war against Ukraine, it can still provoke instabilities by using its proxies to pit opposing political forces against each other and by spreading its authoritarian policies abroad. Moreover, Russia has geopolitical motivations to disrupt security in Georgia. After the Russo-Ukrainian war, the EU seeks to secure economic and energy routes to minimize the negative effects resulting from the EU’s energy dependence on Russia, which was a strategic mistake aimed at temporarily containing Russia’s authoritarian policies. Russia-induced instabilities are aimed at undermining regional peace and disrupting global economic routes. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Central Corridor, connects China and Europe. Russia wants to limit this connectivity and maintain its advantage vis à vis China and Europe are strengthening their grip on the South Caucasus, which links the Caspian and Black Sea regions.
In the same way, Russia approves Georgia’s authoritarian changes and attempts to counterbalance international democratization efforts by weakening pro-democracy forces and spreading authoritarian norms – as well as supporting illiberal forces in power, which are unwilling to cooperate with Western actors. For example, The European Union has granted Georgia candidate status in December 2023. However, Georgia is lagging behind Moldova and Ukraine The two countries began EU accession negotiations on 25 June 2024. It is also likely that Russia has increased its authoritarian pressure on the Georgian government to divert it from the European path. These transgressions can also be explained by the reluctance of Georgian ruling elites to comply with EU policies and limit their political powers for the Europeanization of Georgia and its subsequent democratization. This strategic decision gives Georgian citizens the necessary impetus to escape Russian influence and defend their value-based democratic choice in the upcoming parliamentary elections in October 2024.
The Foreign Influence Transparency Act has two implications at the national level. First, it is unconstitutional because it goes against the spirit of the Constitution. Article 78 of the Georgian Constitution, which obliges the constitutional authorities to take all necessary measures to ensure the full integration of Georgia into the EU and NATO. Second, top of the EU And American officials Georgia has denounced the adoption of this law because it is incompatible with EU values and the strategic objectives of Georgia’s foreign policy. The law prohibits the political participation of pro-democracy forces and promotes their exclusion by stigmatizing them, as the foreign agent label damages the reputation of civil society organizations and the media.
The current electoral system and new regulations add complexity and uncertainty to elections in Georgia. Article 109 of the Electoral Code allocates parliamentary seats to political parties that obtain at least 5% of valid votes. Article 125 describes the method of calculating the number of seats each party gets. Because of the high electoral threshold and these calculation rules, opposition parties have an incentive to form coalitions to improve their chances of winning more seats. Article 766 Electronic voting is permitted using ballots with a barcode and QR code, counted by an electronic voting machine, with results reported in real time. Therefore, domestic observers must be extensively trained to ensure that electronic voting machines comply with Georgian electoral laws. These conditions prompted the Georgian Dream to reintroduce and pass the Foreign Influence Transparency Law, which it had previously withdrawn due to its electoral vulnerability.
Local non-governmental organizations monitor the electoral processes through their observation missions. This law risks constraining NGOs and the media during the pre-election phase and on election day by imposing heavy fines on them, which could lead to the seizure of their property in the event of non-compliance with these measures. noncompliance. In the post-election context, the Russian-inspired law can be used as a political bargaining tool for the Georgian Dream to form a coalition government. Its lineage parties and presumed satellites are less likely to pass the 5% electoral threshold in parliamentary elections. However, if the Transparency of Foreign Influence Law is used to limit the number of international observers, the government is jeopardizing the legitimacy of parliamentary elections and pushing the opposition to mobilize voters in the streets to defend democracy. Arguably, under these conditions, Russia could consider either military intervention or giving its proxies the means to provoke domestic unrest.
There are three main scenarios for the upcoming elections. First, the opposition could win a majority and form a government if it regroups strategically, attracts middle-of-the-road voters, and downplays the role of former President Saakashvili, who is divisive. This requires a common electoral list, a regional campaign, and strong leadership. The pro-European Opposition Front has already promised to defeat the Georgian Dream and bring Georgia back to the European path, and has taken its first steps toward this goal with a pro-European statement signed in Brussels on June 24, 2024. This scenario is, however, unlikely without the unity of the opposition, which also attracts moderate supporters of the Georgian Dream, disappointed by recent changes in foreign policy.
Second, the Georgian Dream will win a majority. However, the Georgian Dream is unlikely to win a simple majority due to widespread discontent and opposition among young voters. Despite the use of administrative resources, the party faces moral disadvantages. US sanctions And corruption scandalsFull autocratization is unlikely due to limited resources, potential backlash from breaking ties with the West, and a popular demand for democracy, with 63% of citizens support a coalition government.
Finally, another scenario would see the formation of a coalition government. The opposition parties could form two main groups, increasing the chances of a coalition government between the opposition and the GD. One of the groups could include parties around Georgian Charter of President Zurabishvili One of the two parties could be the UNM and other parties affiliated with the Georgian Dream. Power sharing with the Georgian Dream could be facilitated by EU accession negotiations and possible EU sanctions against authoritarian leaders. This scenario could, however, create instabilities, but could also foster consensus building and strengthen Georgia’s democratic future.
Further reading on electronic international relations
