Ecuadorians will vote on Sunday in a referendum that could give their center-right president greater powers to combat drug-related gang violence and also gauge how he will fare in his re-election bid l ‘next year.
President Daniel Noboa, 36 years old, heir to a banana empire, took office in November after an electoral period focused on drug-related gang violencewhich has increased over the past five years to levels not seen in decades.
In January, he declared an “internal armed conflict”” and ordered the army to “neutralize” the country’s roughly two dozen gangs, which the government has labeled “terrorist organizations.” This drastic measure allowed soldiers to patrol the streets and prisons, many of whom came under gang control.
Two weeks ago, Mr. Noboa took the extraordinary decision to arrest Ecuadorian politician who faces prison sentence who had taken refuge at the Mexican embassy in Quito, in what experts call a violation of an international treaty on the sanctity of diplomatic posts. The move sparked widespread condemnation across the region.
Mr. Noboa defended the embassy search, saying the politician, a former vice president, was not entitled to protection because he was a convicted criminal.
Together, the army deployment and the forced arrest of the former vice president were intended to show that Mr. Noboa is tough on crime and impunity, political analysts say. Sunday’s vote will gauge the extent to which voters support his aggressive stance.
While Mr. Noboa has high approval ratingsSome human rights groups have criticized his government’s harsh response, calling it going too far and leading to abuses against people in prison and civilians on the streets.
Still, most Ecuadorians are willing to forgo Mr. Noboa’s harsh tactics if it makes them less likely to be victims of crime, experts said.
“Noboa is now one of the most popular presidents in the region,” said Glaeldys González, who researches Ecuador for the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit think tank. “He is taking advantage of the popularity he currently has to catapult himself into the presidential elections. »
The referendum includes 11 questions, eight of which are security-related.
The security measures would enshrine in law the increased military presence, lengthen prison sentences for certain offenses linked to organized crime and allow the extradition of criminals convicted in Ecuador, among other changes.
A surge of violence from international crime groups and local gangs has made the country of 17 million people a key player in the global drug trade. Tens of thousands of Ecuadorians fled to the US-Mexico border.
At the beginning of January, the large coastal city of Guayaquil experienced a a turning point in the long security crisis: Gangs attacked the city after authorities decided to take over Ecuador’s prisons.
In response, Mr. Noboa declared a state of internal conflict, and his combative strategy initially reduced the violence and brought a precarious sense of security. But the stability did not last. During the Easter holidays this month, there were 137 murders in Ecuador, as well as kidnappings and extortion. increased.
The president said he sent police to the Mexican embassy to arrest Jorge Glasthe former vice president who was sentenced to prison for corruption, because Mexico had abused the immunities and privileges granted to the diplomatic mission.
But the move also sent a message consistent with Mr. Noboa’s authoritarian approach to violence and corruption.
Even like polls show Although his approval rating has declined in recent months, it still stands at 74 percent. Most analysts expect Ecuadorians to approve the security questions posed in the vote.
“There really is overwhelming support,” Ms. González said. “I think everyone will benefit from strong support for a ‘yes’ vote.”
But some questions unrelated to security are less popular. We would legalize hourly employment contracts, currently prohibited. Unions say employers could use them to undermine workers’ rights and pay lower wages than allowed by law.
Ecuadorians can decide on each issue separately, so even if they vote “no” on the most controversial issues, the overall result could still result in a strong mandate for Mr. Noboa, who is expected to seek a second term in the elections from February.
“If there is a favorable vote, a resounding ‘yes’, it is also a way of helping the government assert that it needs more time in power to pursue these changes and reforms in its fight against organized crime,” said Ms. González.
If the security measures are approved, the results would be binding and the National Assembly would have 60 days to promulgate them.
But some analysts say the referendum will serve more as a barometer of Mr. Noboa’s popularity than as an effective way to address the country’s security challenges.
“We are not voting on the issue; rather, we vote for the one who asked the question,” said Fernando Carrión, who studies violence and drug trafficking at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences, a regional research and analysis group.
He added that measures such as increasing prison sentences risked exacerbating problems of overcrowding and violence in prisons.
Voters were heading to the polls after a tumultuous few weeks, but some said they were undeterred.
“I will vote ‘yes’ in this referendum because I am convinced that this is the only way for Ecuador to change and that we can all have a better future,” said Susana Chejín, 62, a resident of the south from Ecuador. town of Loja.
“He brings good changes for the country, to fight crime and drug trafficking,” she said of Mr Noboa.
Others said they felt the questions on the referendum were not enough to address the country’s insecurity.
“We are always in the vicious circle of focusing on the symptoms and not the causes,” said Juan Diego Del Pozo, 31, a photographer in Quito. “No question is aimed at solving structural problems, like inequality. My vote will be a resounding “no” on every question.”
Thalie Ponce contributed reporting from Guayaquil, Ecuador, and José María León Cabrera from Quito, Ecuador.
