The PCE index is in line with consensus. Both headline and core inflation (weighted average of monthly inflation, with more recent observations having a higher impact) are down.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation of the PCE (T=12, a=4) by Eeckhout (2023) for PCE (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by the author using X-13 (beige), PCE deflator (pink), supercore CPI (teal), PPI core (light green). May PCE core for May is the Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 6/13. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, Cleveland Fedand the author’s calculations.
The instant core has now been reached.
Although PCE inflation and m/m core PCE inflation are in line with consensus, they are both below the Cleveland Fed’s current forecasts.
Source: Cleveland Fedaccessed on 06/28/2024.
Here is an updated image of the basic measurements.
Figure 2: Instant inflation (T=12, a=4) by Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by the author using X-13 (beige), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal) , the basic CPI (light green). Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLSand the author’s calculations.
Now we know for sure all core measures are down in May.
