Nominal PCE slightly lower than consensus (+0.2% versus +0.3%). Here are some key business cycle indicators tracked by the NBER BCDC, with real personal income excluding transfers stable (as well as real consumption)
Figure 1: Non-agricultural employment (NFP) from the CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and commercial sales in Ch.2017$ ( black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue) and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log-normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third publication, S&P Global Market Overview (née Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (6/1/(2024 version) and author’s calculations.
